By Brenda Flores Cabrera

Deputy Coordinator of Economic Analysis
Mexico, How Are We Doing?

In Mexico we often talk about the “demographic dividend” as an automatic promise of prosperity, but the data forces us to recognize an undeniable fact: young people today face an economic environment that, far from being a launching pad, seems like a labyrinth of structural barriers.

The macroeconomic reality is complex. After the rebound we saw following the pandemic, our economic growth has moderated. In 2025, we closed with an advance of just 0.81% of the quarter, and projections for 2026 barely reach 1.51%. Adding to this limited dynamism is an element that puts a hold on any long-term decision-making: uncertainty.

Between the lack of legal certainty within the country, the review of the USMCA, and global trade tensions, productive investment is slowing down, and with it, the possibility of generating the quality jobs we so desperately need. Ultimately, without investment there is no productivity, and without productivity it is very difficult to sustain better-paying jobs.

If we only consider the national unemployment rate, the 2.51% projected for the end of 2025 might seem like an encouraging figure. The problem is that this data masks very different realities for young people. Approximately 52% of the unemployed in the country are between 15 and 29 years old, and the youth unemployment rate (4.81%) is almost double the national average.

But the problem isn't just the lack of jobs, but the precariousness of those that do exist. By the end of 2025, 55.1% of the employed population was working in the informal sector. For young people, this means that many of the available options are jobs without social security, with low wages, and without stability. And an important point: in Mexico, access to health services and other protection mechanisms still depends, to a large extent, on having formal employment. The average monthly salary for people between 20 and 29 years old is a mere 10,892 pesos for men and 9,440 pesos for women. How can we expect young people to build wealth or achieve economic independence?

Nor can we ignore the fact that region of residence and gender continue to determine opportunities in Mexico. While informality remains below 501% of the workforce in the north, in states like Oaxaca and Chiapas it exceeds 701%. The lack of infrastructure and digital connectivity represents a huge obstacle to the future of millions of young people in our country.

Regarding gender gaps, women's labor force participation remains stagnant at 45.81% compared to 74.61% for men. Among young women, this difference is not accidental; it is the result of a disproportionate burden of unpaid care work and workplace practices that, from asking about maternity plans to demanding salary histories, close doors before they even open.

If we want this to change and take advantage of the window of opportunity, we need coordinated institutional action.

On the one hand, sin legal certainty and clear rules It is very difficult to attract investment. Advanced manufacturing and technology, sectors that can generate formal and better-paying jobs, depend on a stable regulatory environment, a strong rule of law, and a growing and reliable energy supply.

It is also urgent facilitate formality reducing the costs involved, especially for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which account for more than 701% of employment in Mexico.

There is another aspect that is often underestimated in its potential for the country's growth: the care systemAs long as young women have to choose between studying, working, or caring for others, there will be no level playing field. Time use is a direct constraint on their economic participation.

And perhaps one of the most pressing issues is the transition to higher value-added jobs. Today, The gap between what is taught in classrooms and what the labor market demands remains wide.Closing that gap through technical training and dual education schemes would not only improve employability, but also contribute to raising productivity.

Mexico now boasts one of the largest young populations in its history. But this demographic dividend will not, on its own, translate into economic growth. Transforming it into an engine of development will depend on our economy's ability to integrate these young people into the workforce with quality jobs, boost productivity, and reduce the inequalities that currently limit millions of young people.